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Name: Brandon
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Interests: Friends, sports, reading, computer, TV, just chillin
Expertise: Under immense pressure and persecution, I have revoked my status as an expert of girls and now consider myself an expert at just... well ok fine, I have nothing. Are you happy now???
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9/14/2003
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| Time for my annual picks. Let's see if I can manage to get my National Champ pick out of September this year. Time to go through each conference and predict every game in the schedule... ok maybe not the Sun Belt. But 95% of the games, lol. Below you will see the losses I predict for each team at or above .500 by conference. Then at the bottom bowl predictions. Let's get to it.
Big East
I simply do not see West Virginia losing this season. Louisville is very good but does not have the defensive talent to keep up, especially in Morgantown. Maryland will keep it close in week three, the Rutgers/Louisville back to back will be tough, but the Mountaineers have everything lined up this year. Louisville's title hopes will be derailed early on with a shocking loss at Kentucky, and Rutgers' weak early season schedule just won't leave them tested enough to run the gauntlet. Only a major upset can cost West Virginia their shot at the title.
West Va – 12-0
Rutgers – 10-2 – WV, @Lou
Louisville – 9-3 – @UK, @WV, @SF
South Fla – 8-4 – @Aub, WV, @Rut, @Pit
Cinci – 7-5 – Oreg St, @Rut, Lou, @SF, WV
Pitt – 6-6
Conn – 4-8
Syr – 2-10
Pac 10
USC is #1 in every preseason poll and it would be dumb not to expect them there. Everything is back from last season's dominant finish except for the star WRs, and Patrick Turner and the others should leave their memories in the dust. The real calling card for this team is its defense, as good as any in the country this year. The one problem I see is that USC teams do not seem mentally tough enough. They leave the opponent in the game far too often, and it kills them every year. A finish of Oregon, Oregon St, Cal, Arizona State, and UCLA with three road games will be tough. But it's usually that one overlooked team that comes through. Sounds to me like a victory hangover dance after Cal comes up short with a loss at Arizona State on November 22. Cal will again be very good but not great, while both UCLA and Oregon State should be very good all season too.
USC – 11-1 – @Ariz St
Cal – 10-2 – @UCLA, USC
Or St – 9-3 – @Cal, @USC, @Ore
UCLA – 8-4 – BYU, @Or St, @Ari, @USC
Oregon – 7-5 – @Mich, Cal, USC, @Ari, @UCLA
Ariz St – 6-6
Arizona – 6-6
Wazzu – 3-9
Stan – 2-10
Wash – 2-11
Big 10
Everyone has it marked as a two team race between Michigan and Wisconsin. But I'm just not so sure that either of those teams will be rising to the top. Wisconsin has a dominant defense but a very one dimensional offense that will not be able to score on a couple huge drives when the season is on the line. Michigan is just the opposite. The offense is fantastic but the defense lost its luster from last year and doesn't look stout enough to make that big stop. In the mean time, two other programs remain overlooked -- Ohio State and Penn State. These two teams both have dominant defenses and underrated offenses that are good enough to win games in the Big 10. Michigan will dominate all year before coming up short at Wisconsin and choking in the finale yet again against Tressel. Penn State has the best schedule and the best defense. With home wins against the Buckeyes and Badgers, they will shock the nation and send Joe Pa to a fairy tale run at a BCS game.
Penn St – 11-1 – @Mich
Ohio St – 11-1 – @Penn St
Wisc – 10-2 – @Penn St, @Ohio St
Mich – 10-2 – @Wisc, Ohio St
Iowa – 8-4 – @Wisc, @Penn St, @Pur, @Nwest
Ill – 7-5 – Penn St, Wisc, @Iowa, Mich, @Ohio St
Pur – 7-5 – Ohio St, ND, @Mich, @ Penn St, @Ind
NW – 6-6
Mich St – 5-7
Ind – 4-8
Minn – 2-10
Big 12
I foresee a very embarassing start to the season for the Big 12. Nebraska will fall at Wake Forest, Kansas State gets crushed at Auburn, and Mizzou finds a big upset at Illinois. But the biggest upset will come at the top, where TCU comes to Texas with BCS on the mind and has the defense to get the job done against a young title contender. But as usual, everything in this conference is on the line at the Red River Shootout. I'm not a fan of Mack Brown yet but there is one key positional difference here, and it is Colt McCoy at QB. He will stay perfect against the Sooners but come up short in the finale against A&M to cost them the BCS again. Even if Texas does beat OU, Oklahoma's defense is far more talented and the loss of Texas DC Gene Chizek will hurt when the season is on the line. Oklahoma slips past Texas and crushes Missouri in the conference championship.
North
Mizzou – 9-3 – @Ill, @OU, @K St
K St – 8-4 – @Aub, @Tex, @Ok St, @Neb
Nebraska – 7-5 – @Wake, USC, @Mizz, @Tex, @Col
Colorado – 7-5 – @ Fl St, Ok, @K St, @T Tech, @Ia St
Kansas – 5-7
Iowa St – 4-8
South
Oklahoma – 11-1 – Tex
Texas – 10-2 – TCU, @A&M
T Tech – 8-4 – @Ok St, @Mizz, @Tex, OU
Ok St – 7-5 – @UGa, @A&M, @Neb, Tex, @OU
A&M – 7-5 – @Miami, @T Tech, @Neb, @OU, @Mizz
Baylor – 2-10
ACC
Florida State will be back in a huge way and will announce its return to the national scene with a week one thrashing over division favorite Clemson. The Noles defense will be very good again and the offense under new OC Jumbo Fisher should be wide open and very good once again. But the story of the ACC will be in the Coastal division where Virginia Tech delivers a heartfelt run at the national title picture. An early season upset in the Bayou will get everyone excited, and they could run the gauntlet against a tough but winnable schedule. Unfortunately, beating this year's Seminoles twice may be too difficult to pull off. Florida State ends the dream in the ACC title game, but Va Tech heads to the BCS in a season headed straight to the box office.
Atlantic
FSU – 10-2 – @BC, @VT
BC – 9-3 – @GT, @VT, @Clem
Clemson – 9-3 – FSU, @GTech, @SC
Wake – 8-4 – @BC, FSU, @Va, @Clem
Md – 5-7
NC St – 4-8
Coastal
VT – 12-0
Va – 8-4 – @UNC, GT, @Md, @Mia
GT – 8-4 – @Va, @Md, @Mia, VT
Mia – 7-5 – @OU, @UNC, @FSU, @VT, @BC
UNC – 5-7
Duke – 1-11
SEC
Everyone is all set on the West finally coming through this year but I'm not buying it. Kentucky will get the big Louisville upset early, and the Ol' Ballcoach will make a run at a division title, but Florida will disappoint and the Vols will fall flat on their face. In the meantime, LSU will be dominant yet again and has a very legitimate shot at the national title game if coach Miles can finally win a big game. Even with one loss, the SEC showed last year that they can still get there. LSU looks to come up just short in the end. The key game may be early November at Bama. I believe in Nick Saban, and the Tide have a very winnable schedule and should be this season's Razorbacks. If they can find a way to beat LSU, they could be BCS bound.
East
Georgia – 10-2 – @Bama, @GT
SC – 9-3 – @Ga, @LSU, @Ark
Florida – 8-4 – @LSU, @Ga, @SC, Fl St
UK – 6-6
Vandy – 5-7
Tenn – 4-8
West
LSU – 11-1 – VT
Bama – 10-2 – @FSU, LSU
Aub – 8-4 – @Fla, @LSU, @Ga, Bama
Ark – 8-4 – @Bama, Aub, @Miss, @LSU
Miss St – 4-8
Miss – 3-9
Independents
Navy – 8-4 – @Rut, @Pitt, Wake, @ND
Notre Dame – 6-6 – beat MSU, @Pur, Navy, AF, Duke, @Stan
Sun Belt
Troy
MAC
Miami over Central Michigan
MWC
TCU upsets Texas but loses to BYU to finish 11-1
WAC
Hawaii finally beats Boise State but loses the week before to Nevada to finish 11-1
C-USA
Southern Miss beats Tulsa in the title game to crash the BCS at 13-0 with huge early season wins at Tennessee and on the blue Boise turf
BCS Picture
Auto bids go to conference winners West Virginia, USC, Penn State, Oklahoma, Florida State, and LSU. Throw in another auto bid to undefeated Southern Miss. That leaves three at large spots available to Rutgers, Cal, Ohio State, Texas, Va Tech, Georgia, and Alabama -- all double digit wins. OSU and VT go at 11-1. That leaves one last spot, and Cal gets it by being the Rose Bowl replacement after USC edges out LSU in a battle of one loss teams to make the title game.
Orange Bowl - Florida State over Southern Miss
Fiesta Bowl - Virginia Tech over Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl - LSU over Ohio State
Rose Bowl - Cal over Penn State
National Title - West Virginia over USC
Other Bowls
Capital One Bowl – Wisconsin vs Georgia
Gator Bowl – Clemson vs Rutgers
Cotton Bowl – Texas vs Alabama
Outback Bowl – Michigan vs South Carolina
Insight Bowl – Iowa vs Missouri
Chick-Fil-A Bowl – Georgia Tech vs Florida
Music City Bowl – Boston College vs Arkansas
Humanitarian Bowl – Virginia vs Hawaii
Sun Bowl – Louisville vs Oregon State
Armed Forces Bowl – TCU vs UCLA
Independence Bowl – Kansas State vs Auburn
Alamo Bowl – Nebraska vs Illinois
Liberty Bowl – Kentucky vs Tulsa
Meineke Car Care Bowl – Wake Forest vs South Florida
Emerald Bowl – Miami vs Oregon
Holiday Bowl – Arizona vs Texas A&M
Heisman Hype
I know Darren McFadden has all the hype but I think Arkansas may try to do too much too often with their star this year. There is turmoil going on in that program and I see a few huge games but a very disappointing season on the whole. Colt Brennan will be stellar but if he was going to win the Heisman, it would have been with his numbers last year. He'll get a courtesy invite to New York, but that will be it. John David Booty will be good but won't match the numbers Leinart or Palmer put up and it won't be enough.
Other also rans include Mike Hart, Colt McCoy, Chris Wells, Anthony Morelli, and Matt Flynn all with good seasons but not Heisman caliber.
That leaves a three way race between regular season unbeatens, a season to remember among the Virginias. Brandon Ore will be a surprise contender from Virginia Tech while Pat White and Steve Slaton battle for votes against one another. In the end, White may deserve it more but Slaton will have the numbers and precedent on his side and he will nose out White for the Heisman.
 | | |
| crib notes version:
the test is over. it went amazingly well. im almost positive i passed. i felt bathed in prayer, sure that i did not do this on my own today. i am exhausted but wonderfully happy.
thanks for your thoughts and prayers.
| | |
| i am exhausted.
im exhausted for a lot of reasons. the most obvoius one being that little quiz i have coming up on thursday. but its not all that. there are other things. like the other most obvious one, that i am not getting much sleep and not sleeping too well even when i do. but mostly its just thinking too much.
i have thought a lot about virginia tech in the last two days. i dont even know if i can get into it here. just know that i am praying for them, that i hope you are too, that the whole thing is really burdening my heart, and that it makes it awfully hard to care about classes or work or tests in light of everything else. its just such a heavy momentous thing. it also kills me that almost no one seems to be talking about it here, it was just sorta yesterdays shocking news and now today its back to normal life. it also kills me that i had to stop and pause if i should reword the beginning of the sentence that way in light of everything. life is confusing. death is confusing.
i think a lot about this test too. about failing this test. i dont believe ive ever really failed at anything before. but about 36 hours away from this thing, it seems a very very real possibility. i might be ready. i might not be at all. i wont really have any idea until when im taking the test... and even then i probably just wont know. i think about the value of this test. on the one hand, it validates all ive done academically the last two years, six years really. without it, its two years and a lot of money with not a thing to show for it. on the other hand, how can a test really be this big a deal? how can it drag me down for weeks on end, along with many other students? how can it be that i have handfuls of friends coming up to me every day, feeling sorry for me, saying that they will pray for me as though im going in for chemotherapy on thursday or something. its a freaking test! i hate that its become such a big deal to me. but i hate that i cant really make it not a big deal either. part of me wants to pass it to validate all the hard work ive put into it. part of me wants to fail it just because its not that important to my life or to eternity. most of me just wants to get it over with, no matter what the outcome.
i think about news. i am tired of news. im tired of watching the news on tv. its just depressing. im tired of hearing the details about another gruesome killing. why do i need to hear those details? why do i need more pictures and sounds seered into my memory? why cant i get myself to turn the tv off? what if there was some sort of news feed that focused on the good things going on in the world. we have things like that on the news in north dakota. i know there are enough good things to report on. the sad thing is i guess no one would watch it. like it or not, we crave hearing about these things, even if we wont admit it. i am tired of having news too. and im tired of holding back news. and im tired of awaiting news. really really tired.
i think about friendships. a friendship is such a fluid thing. theres so much ebb and flow, and so much that you just cant control. the more i experience life, the more i realize how important faith and grace are to successful friendships. i dont understand friendships. its hard being here for six years. ive been through generations of different groups of friends, both in my own life and at work and crossed between. its weird having friends leave, often unceremoniously. its weird having new ones come in, often ones you wouldnt expect. it sucks watching friendships slowly die. it sucks more recognizing friendships that are completely dead. but i also think about good friendships. about budding friendships. about how its so interesting and exciting and something to fight for and dream about and put a smile on your face. finding someone new who can make your day. and whose day you can be pleased to make. even better. theres so much ebb and flow in friendships. its painful. but its always worth it. always.
i think about sleep. i really want sleep right now. but i should be doing some studying. or be at work. instead im doing neither. but this is cathartic. and someone out there might read it too. you never know. i cant wait to sleep on thursday night. life will not be fixed. but at least one part of it will be out of the way.
i could really use a hair cut. i cant believe theres only 2 weeks left of school. i havent even had time to think about that. it will be really refreshing to see my family in a couple weeks. its always up and down... but its my family, you know? after all ive gone through this semester, i could use them being here, even if only for a few days. i could use a hug.
people dont get nearly enough hugs. im convinced the world would be a better place if more people would take a few seconds extra every now and then and hug someone.
im rambling now. or is that what ive been doing the whole time? alright. i better do a little studying.
could you pray? and not for me and that stupid test. that will work itself out. pray for va tech. and pray for seniors. and pray for friendships.
and for hugs.
| | |
| NL East
1) New York Mets - 94-68
There's just too much offense for them not to win this division. Alou steps in to replace Floyd without missing a beat, and this offense is just by far the best in the NL. There are questions of pitching, sure. Glavine, El Duque, and Pedro can only do so much, that's for sure. And I'm not exactly sold on Maine or Perez being big answers for the team. But even if they can limit teams to even a mediocre ERA, it's going to be good enough with an amazing offense and a terrible division. Plus the bullpen is still top notch, so they will put games away in the final innings. Watch, the Mets will struggle more this year and have some pitching injuries, but it may turn out to be a good thing when the pitchers come off the DL more rested for a playoff run.
Bold prediction: Young stud Lastings Milledge will finally be sent packing at the deadline for the best pitcher available in a deal that should have happened a year or two ago.
2) Philadelphia Phillies - 89-73
The Phillies seem to be everyone's pick in the East, but I'm not buying it just yet. Oh you better believe I'm buying into Howard, Utley, and Rollins. It's an incredible top part of the lineup, but what else is there after that? And the pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. I think Cole Hamels is legit but worry with this being his first whole season, whether he can stay healthy and fresh all year. Outside of him, there's a lot of guys who just don't strike me as anything special. Garcia is talented but his arm seems to be constantly tired these days. Myers is hit or miss. Moyer, Eaton, and Lieber are really nothing more than inning eaters at this point. No, it's not much better or worse than the Mets' staff, but the lineup and defense is not close, and neither is the managing. This is definitely a wild card contender especially in such a weak division, but I think they're still a year and another pitcher and batter away.
Bold prediction: The Phillies start off on a hot tear and lead the division heading to the All Star break, but they collapse like normal in the late months and try to hold on for dear life to a wild card spot.
3) Florida Marlins - 75-87
Let me say one thing first... I am still utterly baffled why this team decided to get rid of Joe Girardi. I think it costs them a good chance at a playoff spot this year and will really set back a very talented young team. We'll see what Gonzalez can do. There's young talent all over the place. The infield looks like it will be good for a very long time. The pitching staff is full of great young arms. There are question marks in the outfield, and we've yet to see if Hermida can meet expectations. The bullpen is also very mediocre, and this team doesn't look like a top contender, but it should be fun to watch these kids develop.
Bold prediction: Everyone will speculate all year about Willis and Cabrera being traded, but both will stay put and Willis will bounce back with a Cy Young type of performance leading this young pitching staff.
4) Atlanta Braves - 72-90
The Braves' glory years have finally ended, and the team has come crashing back to earth in a big way. The days of a dominant pitching staff seem long ago, though Tim Hudson has looked good in spring training and should bounce back nicely this year if he can just stay healthy. Gone too is the rock steady lineup from top to bottom. Some of the younger guys like Francouer and McCann look to have a lot of potential, but they really need a good youth movement to fill out the team more. This is simply not a contender anymore. It's time to start over here and build on a few good young pieces.
Bold prediction: Andruw Jones says goodbye and gets traded at the deadline. Chipper, Smoltz, and Bobby Cox all say goodbye at the end of the season as well. Chipper heads to the AL for a few years at DH, and Smoltz and Cox finally hang it up after brilliant careers.
5) Washington Nationals - 58-104
Quick, name a starting pitcher for the 2007 Nationals. I'm waiting. Alright, you probably got Patterson. But wow is this team just a scrap of leftovers thrown together, or what? I didn't know it was possible, but this team lost a lot of talent this offseason: Soriano, Guillen, Vidro, Armas, and Ortiz. Replacing all of those starters are... not much of anything. This team is absolutely terrible. Their only goal this year is not to lose 100 games. I don't like their chances.
Bold prediction: The Nationals are so bad that Bud Selig finally changes the All Star rule a few weeks before the game so that we don't have to waste a spot on every single team.
NL Central
1) Chicago Cubs - 86-76
The NL Central has more teams than any other division and still none of them look like great candidates to rise to the top. The Cubs seem to be the most talented overall, and I know it's a homer pick, but I'm cautiously going with them. The offense looks like the most complete in the NL outside of New York. Soriano will be great at the top of the lineup, and the middle is already very good and powerful. The pitching isn't fantastic, but at least they're not relying on Prior or Wood anymore and there's depth to deal with injuries. And it's not like any of the NL teams are blowing anyone away with pitching these days. The bullpen is pretty good as well. Overall, it just looks like the most talented team in the division, so they ought to be the favorites going in. Then again, we've heard that story before.
Bold prediction: For all the 300 million dollars the Cubbies spent this winter, the best offseason acquisition will turn out to be getting back a healthy Derrek Lee and his MVP presence into their lineup and defense.
2) St Louis Cardinals - 85-77
Ask me how comfortable I am predicting the Cards to be in the division race down to the wire and then lose to the Cubs... not very comfortable at all. But even this record seems like a gift for the Cards. Three-fifths of the rotation is gone and replaced by a Pirate castoff and two former closers. Color me skeptical at best. And the offense still looks like Pujols or bust, getting older each year. Guys like Rolen and Edmonds just aren't so scary anymore, and there's not a lot in the cupboard as far as young talent on its way. I know the managers and the system are great, and trust me, that's the only reason they are even this high. Talent-wise, this team is worse than last season... and this is actually two more wins for them.
Bold prediction: Jim Edmonds will officially fall off the map and Pujols will struggle some to carry the offense this year. Adam Wainwright will turn out to be a very good looking young picture thanks to Dave Duncan.
3) Milwaukee Brewers - 83-79
The Brewers continue to inch toward relevancy again, and a lot of people are picking them as a good sleeper, but I think it's still a year or two too early. The offense is solid but not great, and they will need guys like Fielder and Weeks to really mature for it to be a powerful and consistent offense. But the key to this team is the health of its staff. Capuano is underrated and very good, and Sheets is always good but just can't stay healthy. Adding a veteran guy like Jeff Suppan may turn out to be a very good move. This team is a contender for the division this year and they'll stay in it until late, I'm just not sure they're quite ready yet. One more year.
Bold prediction: Prince Fielder will explode for 40 bombs... but the Bill Hall in centerfield experiment will fail badly.
4) Houston Astros - 77-85
It can't be a good thing when your team loses Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte in the same offseason and it's only real big signing is to bring in a former Rockies pitcher. To be fair, Jennings is a very solid pitcher and moves to a pitcher's park, but still the pitching staff is very thin. Oswalt will have to be brilliant, and he probably will. Berkman will be a stud as always, but is there enough help? Carlos Lee smells like an expensive bust to me. Not an all out bust, but not a guy who was worth that kind of money. Looks like he and Ensberg will be swinging for the fences all year but may not be able to produce a run when it matters. In the meantime, some of the mainstays like Biggio and Ausmus are on their last wheels, if that. I think it's finally time to retool.
Bold prediction: Lee and Ensberg will provide the beef of the lineup with 75 homers, but they'll also keep the fans cool in the stands with 200+ strikeouts between them.
5) Cincinnati Reds - 73-89
I never was too sure how this team hung around and led the Central for most of last season. The pitching is mediocre. The hitting is mediocre. The bullpen is downright awful. What's there to like? Well Aaron Harang is a good place to start. He led the league in wins and strikeouts last season and most people didn't even bother noticing. Arroyo was very hot and cold last year, and the rest of the rotation is very average. The lineup is full of specialty guys like Freel (speed), Dunn (power), and Griffey Jr (injuries) and doesn't feel like a very complete lineup at all. It just looks like a poor team overall. Nothing stands out as excitable, and the bullpen is still abysmal.
Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips is a name you're going to come to know by the end of the year, especially if you play fantasy ball. He does a little bit of everything and will be the best player on this team at the end of the year.
6) Pittsburgh Pirates - 70-92
If you were looking for the Pirates preview, did you check anywhere else besides 6th place in the Central first? I didn't think so. Only the Pirates could manage to finish 6th place in a division consistently in a league with 30 teams and 6 divisions. But there are good things starting to brew in the Burgh. Jason Bay is a good place to start. He somehow gets better and better each year, despite having almost no protection in the lineup, and this year he finally has a good bat behind him in Adam LaRoche. Sanchez is a guy you've probably never seen play, but he won the NL batting title last year. And the pitching staff has some good youth rounding into shape with Snell, Duke, and Maholm. There are reasons for optimism. Just not nearly enough.
Bold prediction: Jason Bay will have another unbelievable year where no one notices, the NL's version of Carl Crawford. Let's shoot for 40 and 115, MVP numbers anywhere else, but barely on the radar in Pittsburgh.
NL West
1) San Diego Padres - 92-70
I'm not sure I understand what the media is doing with the NL West. Either the youth lovers are picking Arizona (or Colorado), or the old timers are picking LA (or SF), but no one seems to care about the Padres even though they are two-time defending division champs. Somehow no one seems to notice that. Let's start with the pitching. Chris Young quietly had a Cy sort of year last year, and Peavy was hurt all year and barely even contributed much. Enter Greg Maddox who doesn't bring a ton to the table as far as domination but will do wonders for this young rotation just being there. Add in young flamethrower Hensley and veteran Wells, plus the best bullpen in all of baseball, and you get the best pitching rotation in all of the NL, maybe in all of baseball. And yet no one's talking? Oh well, let me have them as my "sleeper" I guess. The offense is not stellar but still quite good. Marcus Giles was a sly pickup and he should bounce back well; remember just a couple of years ago he was the best 2B in baseball. Meanwhile, the best young player you haven't seen play yet might be Adrian Gonzalez, poised to hit 300, 30, and 100 this year. This team is ready.
Bold prediction: Chris Young will be a brilliant presence again in this rotaton but will not be one of the most talked about pitchers in his own rotation, will not be the most talked about Chris Young in his own division, and will not make the All Star team somehow. Again.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles - 90-74
I don't really get the Dodgers. They have so much young talent, maybe as much as any team in baseball, and yet they just spent another offseason signing LuGo and Pierre and Wolf and Schmidt, all guys who have been good and whose best years seem to be behind them. The top half of the lineup would've been ridiculous about five years ago (Furcal, Pierre, Nomar, Kent, LuGo) but the top two guys get on base less each year, and I don't see Nomar and Kent staying healthy all year again. The funny thing is that injuries to these guys may be a blessing in disguise, letting some of the young talent shine through in Kemp, Ethier, Loney, and others. This team is too deep to not stay in contention. The same is true for the pitching where there are lot of really good veterans, plus a handful of young arms. In the end, I see the Padres, Dodgers, and Phillies fighting for two spots just like last year. All three teams are better, and it may come down to which one chokes the least: Grady Little or Charlie Manuel?
Bold prediction: If Jason Schmidt can control the walks, he is a good sleeper for winning the Cy Young this year. Furcal and Pierre will have speed that make opposing teams sick but it won't matter when neither one can get on base consistently. And the best position player by the end of the year will be James Loney.
3) Arizona Diamondbacks - 82-80
Like the Brewers above, the Diamondbacks seems to be the chic pick to take a big step forward this year, and like the Brewers, I'm not quite convinced this year. There's a better case here, though, and it starts with pitching. Brandon Webb is a stud, and the guys behind him (Randy Johnson and Livan Hernandez) have been good for a long time. Too long, perhaps. They're both on their way out at this point, and I don't see either being a huge producer this season. They both seem to be pitching tired at this point. The offense has a lot of young talent, but it's still forming at this point. Stephen Drew is going to be awesome and should contend for ROY, and Chris Young may not be far behind him. Jackson and Tracy at the infield corners are very solid. There's a lot to like. But there's no real veteran slugging presence in the lineup (and no, supposed cleanup hitter Eric Byrnes does not count). Like I said, I like what they're putting together, I just don't think they're ready just yet in a division that's suddenly very good.
Bold prediction: Johnson will spent a lot of the season on the DL, and this team will struggle early but get hot later in the year like a better version of the 2006 Marlins. Those new uniforms and awesome new logo will be the talk of... Arizona.
4) San Francisco Giants - 76-86
Take a look at the lineup; this entire lineup could've been together last millennium! On this team, long time veterans Randy Winn and Bengie Molina (33 years each by summer's end) are spring chickens. The rest of the lineup is 35 (Roberts), 36 (Aurilia, Durham), 40 (Vizquel), and 43 (Bonds). Young Pedro Feliz (32) may get razed by the veterans this year if he's not careful. The average age of a batter starting for this team is an amazing 36, which has to be some sort of an awful record. You want another awful record? How about this first team in memory stupid enough to start FOUR middle infielders? It's like someone dared the Giants to put together the most bizarro team in recent memory that would still get some morons to pick them to win the division. Well count me out. I like the pitching enough, but it's time for the Giants to dump the entire starting lineup and completely start over. There are too many veterans to not win a few games, but it's going to be slow and ugly.
Bold prediction: The move to let Schmidt go and pay 126 million for Barry Zito will turn out to be one of the worst in recent memory. Zito will be slightly above average and Schmidt will stay in Cy contention all year for a fraction of the cost for the division rival Dodgers.
5) Colorado Rockies - 73-89
How irrelevant are the Rockies? So irrelevant that, when I made my NL predictions last year, I actually forgot to even include the Rockies in my discussion. I could've done just as well to leave them out this year. Oh I know people are starting to get excited about this team, and there's a few fun young hitters, but isn't that story getting old after 15 years? The team has never been able to get any pitching, and they won't matter until they do. They finally unearthed a good pitcher last year in Jennings and then promptly let him walk in free agency. The money stinginess is getting to be a little ugly. The only major free agent signings were Willy Taveras (could beat a horse in a foot race, but hits about as well as one), Rodrigo Lopez (he of the 9-18 record and just under 6 ERA last year), and LaTroy Hawkins (say no more). I don't even care enough about these guys to come up with anything fun to say about them. They're a long ways away.
Bold prediction: Todd Helton becomes available at the deadline and becomes one of those guys who is a shrewd pickup for a needy team with a great glove and steady OBP. Think the Red Sox could come calling again?
Rookie of the Year - Stephen Drew
Also receiving votes: James Loney, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Matt Kemp, Chris Young, Troy Tulowizki
Manager of the Year - Bud Black
Also receiving votes: Lou Pinella, Willie Randolph, Ned Yost
Cy Young - Roy Oswalt
Also receiving votes: Jason Schmidt, Chris Carpenter, Dontrelle Willis, Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano
MVP - David Wright
Also receiving votes: Albert Pujols, Carlos Delgado, Ryan Howard, Derrek Lee, Jose Reyes, Adrian Gonzalez
Playoffs
Los Angeles at New York
A whole lot of offense in this one, and not the greatest pitching in the world, but it's not terrible. It would make for a very fun series and get a lot of folks involved on both coasts with rooting interests. The starters for the Dodgers are definitely their strength here, but the Mets bullpen makes up some of the difference, and their lineup more than does the rest. In the end, it would be a hard fought battle, but the Mets are just a much better team overall and wouldn't lose this series.
The pick: New York in 5.
Chicago at San Diego
Alright, I'm willing to pick the Cubs to make the playoffs out of a struggling NL Central, but the homerism stops here because I'm really not sold on that team at all. It doesn't look like a great playoff team, with a lot of streaky shooters, a weak bullpen, and a shaky rotation after Zambrano. The Cubs would be just good enough to get fans' hopes up again before crushing them with an all-too-quick playoff exit. The Padres are a team built for a playoff run with that awesome bullpen and great pitching lineup. Is there enough hitting? I say yes.
The pick: San Diego in 3.
San Diego at New York
Time for the Mets to get close but not quite close enough again. The team as it stands right now is going to dominate in the regular season again, and again fall short without great pitching in the postseason. Whether they can make the series this year determines greatly on what sort of pitching help they can find at the trade deadline. They're going to need a lot if they meet up with a team like San Diego in the playoffs. The Pads have the pitching to limit this lineup from the first inning to the last, and they'll be ready to produce runs bit by bit like they have all year long. It would be a classic pitching vs hitting matchup, and we've seen that one enough times in history to know that pitching pretty much always wins come playoff time.
The pick: San Diego in 7.
World Series
San Diego at Anaheim
It's an all-California World Series! While everyone on the East coast cries themselves to sleep about baseball gone wrong, this one would actually be pretty entertaining. Perhaps the two best bullpens in baseball along with two excellent pitching staffs will make every single run by a big play in this matchup. The Angels can match pitcher for pitcher with the Padres, but do the Pads have the hitters to match up with the star power of playoff veterans like Vlad and Garrett Anderson? The Giles brothers are good, and Adrian Gonzalez is great, but the guess here is that there's just not quite enough hitting in the end. Last year was an aberration. The World Series trophy will be back in the AL when all the dust settles on this season.
The pick: Anaheim in 6.
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